Election Watching 101
Elections hinge on issues, events, candidate rhetoric and actions, and voter perceptions. These factors can be understood via the lens of political science. For all the variations available, elections are highly predictable events, a fact that political scientists understand well. This assignment asks you to put on your political scientist glasses and study a competitive House or Senate election. You will be our class expert in this election and together we will better understand the decisions that American voters are being asked to make on November 6th. Assignments and source requirements are listed below.
Assignment I (Quiz Grade) - Due September 27th
Your first assignment is a graphic portrayal of the race you are following. It should be one 8x11 page and feature a picture of each candidate, a brief overview of their experience, and a brief summary of the district/state in question (including the general demographics of the population). We will post these in the class for everyone to see so…it should look good.
Assignment II (Double Quiz Grade) - Due October 14th
Your next assignment is to profile the issues and ideas in your assigned race, with an eye toward voter concerns in the election. Write up a 1000-1500 word (typed, double-spaced) overview of the race. In your overview, you will explain who is running, the key issues of the race, and critical demographic features of the state/district that really matter. The idea is to get a real feel for the district/state and the election decisions voters who live there are about to make. Your assessment should list the sources you’ve consulted in a bibliography and it should be well-written.
Assignment III (Quiz Grade) - Due November 7th
I call this the put-your-money-where-your-mouth is assignment. Due today is your 500-1000 word (typed, double-spaced) prediction of who will win the race in your district/state and analysis and explanation of why they will win. I’m less interested in you picking the right candidate (though that would be nice) then I am in your analysis of how the election will unfold. You will be graded on the quality of your analysis, not on the validity of your pick. I will compile our predictions into a guide you may use to follow the election returns on the night of November 8th.
Assignment IV (Quiz Grade) - Due November 16th
This is an election post-mortem in which you identify the outcome of the election in your assigned race. Your 500-1000 word (typed, double-spaced) summary will consider your characterization of the race and your prediction of the outcome and analyze what happened on election night. Who won? Why did they prevail? What issues mattered to the voters in the district? Were there national forces at play in your race? Was your prediction accurate? Why or why not?
A word on sources:
There is a volume of political information out there. Sadly, truckloads of it are poor quality information and analysis. We are political scientists and we don’t want to rely on these sources. Happily, there is also a good deal of quality information available; information that political professionals follow. Listed below are approved sources for your research and reading. Please note that these are the only sources you may cite in your research (and you must include source citations). If you wish to rely on another source, please seek my approval in advance. I anticipate that together we will expand this list. Use of un-approved sources may result in a lowered final grade.
Here, in no particular order, is an annotated list of the approved sources; nearly all of them are available online so you can do your research work wherever you have digital access.
Here, in no particular order, is an annotated list of the approved sources; nearly all of them are available online so you can do your research work wherever you have digital access.
1. Candidate websites
Candidate websites tend to give you very good information about the candidates and his or her beliefs and policy agenda. Access to candidate adverts and speeches are also available. Information about the candidate’s opponent is likely to be, ahem, biased. Check out both sides. Consider how connected a candidate is and how well they employ digital resources.
2. Newspapers in your assigned district or state
These are useful for district context and for overviews of the local issues and concerns that often drive Congressional elections. Immerse yourself in this context; pay less attention to editorial endorsements. Dig around and find out how much influence the local newspaper exerts.
3. Politics1
Polling information, links to candidate websites, and information about newspapers and media within the state are all available at Politics1. The site is not elegant looking but it is chock-full of useful information and links.
4. The New York Times
The grey lady is the nation’s leading newspaper for a very good reason. The newspaper’s political website is first-rate and is available at the politics section.
Please note that there is a paywall for NYT access and you may only access 10 articles for free each month before they want some cash. If a family member doesn’t have a subscription, you can do this the old-fashioned way and read newspapers in our library, or you can stop by my room and I'll help you out.
5. CNN
The network maintains a very sound political website with up-to-the minute news and quality polling data and interpretation.
6. NPR
National Public Radio also runs a thorough politics section with analysis, predictions and plenty of election information.
7. Politico
Politico is a Washington insider online source with headline political news, in-depth analysis, and quality polling data. There is lots of information here; give yourself time to sort through the material.
8. Real Clear Politics
RCP links to political news of the day and doesn’t always distinguish between good and poor quality information. But it does give you a feel for national trending topics. The real value of RCP is in the up-to-date polling data available on the site. That’s worth your time.
9. National Journal
Another DC-based insider source is the National Journal. General political and election gossip is available from the National Journal, a series of political insider publications. Some of this is subscriber only but the free stuff that you can read is worth your time.
10. Political Wire
The Congressional Quarterly sponsors this website, another quality source of insider news and information. Polling data will also be available here.
11. Kevin Drum‘s blog at Mother Jones
Drum is a longtime political journalist with particular expertise on issues of concern to western states. Mother Jones leans to the left and so does Drum, but he is widely-read and respected on both sides of the partisan divide. His data-interpretation skills are first-rate and he also provides links to a variety of sources on the left and right. Pro-tip: I read him every day.
12. Cook Political Report
Charlie Cook is a non-partisan election analyst; predicting elections is his business. Much of the data here is subscriber only and I will provide you printed material from my subscription. You may check out the site and should let me know if there is something you’d like to read.
13. Rothenberg Political Report
In the same vein as Charlie Cook is Stuart Rothenberg, an excellent professional election analyst. His website is also subscriber-only but some free stuff can be accessed.
14. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Sabato is a political scientist at the University of Virginia and Crystal Ball is a political handicapping website. The material is free and non-partisan. The writing is by Sabato, UVA political science students, and guest political scientists. His work is must-read material for political professionals.
15. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com
Nate Silver started his website in time for the 2008 election, and has since earned a reputation for calling races correctly. The site has grown since '08 to include many more contributors, but it retains its reputation as an excellent polling aggregator and analyzer.
On occasion, I may point you in the direction of an additional source. When that happens, the source can be considered approved. Your work must cite the sources you consulted and used to write your assignments. In most instances, a bibliography is sufficient though direct quotes or references to polling data should be directly cited in the body of your paper. Questions? Please ask me!
Candidate websites tend to give you very good information about the candidates and his or her beliefs and policy agenda. Access to candidate adverts and speeches are also available. Information about the candidate’s opponent is likely to be, ahem, biased. Check out both sides. Consider how connected a candidate is and how well they employ digital resources.
2. Newspapers in your assigned district or state
These are useful for district context and for overviews of the local issues and concerns that often drive Congressional elections. Immerse yourself in this context; pay less attention to editorial endorsements. Dig around and find out how much influence the local newspaper exerts.
3. Politics1
Polling information, links to candidate websites, and information about newspapers and media within the state are all available at Politics1. The site is not elegant looking but it is chock-full of useful information and links.
4. The New York Times
The grey lady is the nation’s leading newspaper for a very good reason. The newspaper’s political website is first-rate and is available at the politics section.
Please note that there is a paywall for NYT access and you may only access 10 articles for free each month before they want some cash. If a family member doesn’t have a subscription, you can do this the old-fashioned way and read newspapers in our library, or you can stop by my room and I'll help you out.
5. CNN
The network maintains a very sound political website with up-to-the minute news and quality polling data and interpretation.
6. NPR
National Public Radio also runs a thorough politics section with analysis, predictions and plenty of election information.
7. Politico
Politico is a Washington insider online source with headline political news, in-depth analysis, and quality polling data. There is lots of information here; give yourself time to sort through the material.
8. Real Clear Politics
RCP links to political news of the day and doesn’t always distinguish between good and poor quality information. But it does give you a feel for national trending topics. The real value of RCP is in the up-to-date polling data available on the site. That’s worth your time.
9. National Journal
Another DC-based insider source is the National Journal. General political and election gossip is available from the National Journal, a series of political insider publications. Some of this is subscriber only but the free stuff that you can read is worth your time.
10. Political Wire
The Congressional Quarterly sponsors this website, another quality source of insider news and information. Polling data will also be available here.
11. Kevin Drum‘s blog at Mother Jones
Drum is a longtime political journalist with particular expertise on issues of concern to western states. Mother Jones leans to the left and so does Drum, but he is widely-read and respected on both sides of the partisan divide. His data-interpretation skills are first-rate and he also provides links to a variety of sources on the left and right. Pro-tip: I read him every day.
12. Cook Political Report
Charlie Cook is a non-partisan election analyst; predicting elections is his business. Much of the data here is subscriber only and I will provide you printed material from my subscription. You may check out the site and should let me know if there is something you’d like to read.
13. Rothenberg Political Report
In the same vein as Charlie Cook is Stuart Rothenberg, an excellent professional election analyst. His website is also subscriber-only but some free stuff can be accessed.
14. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Sabato is a political scientist at the University of Virginia and Crystal Ball is a political handicapping website. The material is free and non-partisan. The writing is by Sabato, UVA political science students, and guest political scientists. His work is must-read material for political professionals.
15. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com
Nate Silver started his website in time for the 2008 election, and has since earned a reputation for calling races correctly. The site has grown since '08 to include many more contributors, but it retains its reputation as an excellent polling aggregator and analyzer.
On occasion, I may point you in the direction of an additional source. When that happens, the source can be considered approved. Your work must cite the sources you consulted and used to write your assignments. In most instances, a bibliography is sufficient though direct quotes or references to polling data should be directly cited in the body of your paper. Questions? Please ask me!
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